In the Washington Nationals pursuit for their first winning season, there has been one constant that has plagued the team throughout their six years as a franchise.  That constant has been major injuries.  From Nick Johnson’s fragile body to Ryan Zimmerman’s DL stints, the team has seen its fair share of season altering injuries.  Most recently though in the last three years, it has been the Nationals’ top starting pitchers that have felt the pain with very similar UCL tears that led to Tommy John surgery.

It all began in 2009, with the Nationals’ No. 2 pitcher, Jordan Zimmermann.  Two months into his impressive rookie debut in the majors, Zimmermann was placed on the disabled list with elbow pain that affected his throwing arm.  By his first rehab start in the minors, nothing had changed and he was diagnosed with a torn UCL that required Tommy John surgery.

One year later, the No. 1 prospect in all baseball, Stephen Strasburg, made his highly anticipated debut in Washington.  Almost two months later, just like Zimmermann, he was placed on the disabled list for shoulder pain.  In his third start back against the Phillies, he was taken out of the game after showing visible pain and discomfort in his throwing elbow.  Shortly after, he received the same exact diagnosis as Zimmermann with a torn UCL that required Tommy John surgery.

To today’s everyday baseball fan, Tommy John surgery is so common that it almost feels commonplace for major league pitchers. The surgery is most frequently attributed to repetitive use or strain of the elbow, which explains why pitchers are primarily subject to it.  Before the surgery was discovered, a torn MCL or UCL would mean the end of a pitcher’s career.  When it was first performed on Tommy John in 1974, the odds of a full recovery were said to be 1 in 100. According to Discovery Health, today the odds have increased significantly to around 85% to reach full recovery, but the recovery time is still long for baseball standards at around 12-18 months.

Although there have been vast improvements in medical treatments, there is a significant amount of speculation as to whether or not Tommy John surgery affects a player’s career, but at a 85% full recovery rate, there are many that have had huge success.  The most famous examples nowadays are John Smoltz, Chris Carpenter, Tim Hudson, and C.J. Wilson.

In more recent memory, there are two cases that have clear similarities to both Zimmermann and Strasburg: Josh Johnson of the Miami Marlins and Jaime Garcia of the St. Louis Cardinals.  After a terrible/disappointing start to his second year in the majors, Josh Johnson underwent Tommy John surgery in the beginning of the 2007 baseball season at 23 years old, which is around the same age as Strasburg and Zimmerman when they both underwent surgery.  When Johnson returned an amazing 11 months later, nothing held him back.  From 2008-2011, he has posted an amazing 2.80 ERA, winning 36 games and losing only 13.  In addition, he was voted to the All-Star game twice and in 2010, he came in 5^th in the Cy Young voting after posting the best ERA in all the majors.  It is obvious to state that Tommy John surgery did not hurt his performance, but it may have actually helped.

After Jaime Garcia’s debut late in the 2008 season, Garcia missed all of the 2009 major league season rehabbing his arm after Tommy John surgery. Since then, he has been “lights out” for the Cardinals.  In two seasons, his rookie season and last year, he has put up a 3.17 ERA with a 26 – 15 record, 288 strikeouts, three shutouts, and one World Series Championship.  Incredibly in his first season back, he came in third in the Rookie of the Year voting after posting an incredible 2.70 ERA.   The same can be said about Garcia as Johnson; that Tommy John surgery did not hinder his performance but may have actually helped.

After seeing these results numerous people have inquired into the possibility of getting Tommy John surgery just to improve their game.  There is even a myth that the surgery actually improves pitch speed.  Many doctors have explained that the surgery itself does not help a player but the emphasis on intense rehab and conditioning afterwards is what helps immensely and often leads to the results.  This conditioning is what the fans should focus on and not the actually surgery itself. These days it is very rare to see a failure with our amazing medical technology.

The return of Strasburg and Zimmermann showed that both players conditioned themselves to the point past full recovery like Johnson and Garcia did.  Zimmermann raised his fastball speed while posting a career year and Strasburg pitched 24 innings with 24 strikeouts and a 1.50 ERA. Next season, Strasburg will be on an innings limit just like Zimmermann, but that shouldn’t slow him down, and Zimmermann will likely be free to let loose.  There are no sure things, but based on the best medical care possible, past player’s experiences, and last year’s stats, there is no reason to be anything but optimistic.

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In this day and age there is pretty much no such thing as a sleeper. With an astronomical amount of fantasy baseball content being published every day from sources both new and old, even the most casual of fantasy baseball GMs need only to take a few minutes to browse the internet before finding the late-round players that everyone is touting as “sleepers”. We’ll do the same as February gives way to March, the official month of fantasy baseball draft season. But before we do that, let’s try to find some potential value in players that will most likely go undrafted in standard mixed leagues. These players are usually aging veterans with declining numbers, but sometimes a promising circumstance makes all the difference. While the probability is low that any of these players will have a huge bounce-back season, there might just be enough left in their tanks to make them mixed league worthy and at the low-low price of a early season free agent addition.

Chone Figgins – Recent reports indicate that the Mariners are looking at Chone Figgins as an everyday player, whether it be at third base or a mix-and-match scenario. Multiple position eligibility is always a plus, but Figgins will have to show some signs of life at the plate to actually hold an everyday gig. He hit a miserable .188/.241/.243 with only 11 stolen bases in 81 games last season, but he did so while battling through and ultimately missing a bunch of time with a hip injury. Obviously, any injury to the lower body for a player whose value comes mostly in stolen bases is a death-blow. Figgins is 34, which isn’t exactly encouraging, but just a season before last he stole 42 bases.

The M’s are willing to give their $36M investment every chance to stay in the lineup, perhaps even in the leadoff spot. If Figgins can avoid the injury bug, he could prove to be quite a bargain for fantasy GMs.

Brandon Lyon – Let me just be clear: I am not a Brandon Lyon fan. Not at all. That being said, a save is a save is a save is a save. Lyon is still working back from a shoulder injury, but his multi-million dollar contract and the fact that the Astros’ bullpen lacks much big league track record means that he’ll likely be closer-by-default once he’s healthy (he is throwing restriction free so far this spring). While there is no way that I would endorse investing anything more than a last round pick on Lyon, he has the potential to provide a counting stat, saves, so there is inherently at least some value there. Who knows, maybe he gets lucky and runs into a decent ERA and WHIP. He’s certainly done that before.

Raul Ibanez – Ibanez is 39 years old and will turn 40 in early June. Clearly, his upside is limited and his decline is evident. Last season, his pitch recognition fell completely off the charts, as he saw a drastic drop in walk rate and cautionary rise in chase rate. His ground ball to fly ball ratio has also trended in the wrong direction for two straight seasons, as he has hit more balls on the ground than in the air, lowering his home run potential. However, even in his decline, Ibanez still popped 20 home runs last season with a respectable .174 ISO. If the rumors are true, Ibanez is on the verge of becoming the Yankees’ new DH, which gets his aging body off the field as well as gives him a short porch to aim for in right.

It’s hard to think Ibanez will have a huge season at his age, but it’s definitely not out of the question that he could simply try and pepper baseballs over the right field porch in Yankee Stadium and provide fantasy owners with 25-plus homers in 2012.

Juan Uribe – In 2010, Uribe cranked out 24 home runs, more than half of which came in the carnivorous space of AT&T Park in San Francisco. Uribe parleyed his power game and plus defensive skills into a multi-year deal with the Dodgers that winter. That contract got off to a terrible start last season, as Uribe played in only 77 games while hitting .204/.264/.293 with four home runs. Much as was the case with the aforementioned Chone Figgins, Uribe spent the majority of the season battling injuries, specifically a severely painful sports hernia that cost him the bulk of the season.

Uribe has promised management that he would be in shape and ready to go in 2012. If that’s the case, there is no reason to doubt that a return in power numbers is quite possible, if not inevitable. In most formats, he’ll be eligible at third and second, which gives him plenty of potential value even if he has little upside in AVG. no comments

Burnett is actually owed $31.1 million,because NYY pay their contracts year-round, and he's already been paid about $1.9m. PIT picks up $13m

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) February 17, 2012

It looks like this ridiculous saga might finally be coming to a close with the resolution that we've all been expecting for a week and a half now. 

The reason the deal has to go to Selig's office is that the Yankees are, of course, going to be eating a large amount of Burnett's salary. The latest report from Jon Heyman has it at about $20 million of the $33 million total, with the Pirates paying $13 million and sending the Yankees two "non-roster" prospects. There's been a lot of consternation over who these prospects will be and there's not really any indication yet. Some of the reporting from New York has indicated that they'll be "B-level prospects," which has caused a freakout because if you're used to regular prospect grading, Starling Marte is a "B-level prospect." I fully anticipate that the language is to indicate a second-tier prospect, and that we're unlikely to see anyone that would be considered one of the Pirates' top 20 prospects to go anywhere. 

Having no inside information here and just playing a guessing game, I'd guess that one of the two prospects will be Carlos Paulino or Ramon Cabrera, because the Pirates currently have three Double-A catchers on the assumption that Tony Sanchez starts the season in Altoona, and logistically that's just too many catchers. The second player will probably be a pitcher in the Nate Baker/Victor Black range of pitching prospects, again, because the Pirates have so many pitchers in the lower parts of the minors and need to free up space. 

I realize that we as fans all wanted the Pirates to get Burnett for zero prospect cost, but the truth is that they do have a few logjams of similar players in the low minors. Using this deal to alleviate that kind of situation makes sense, if the Yankees are insisting on getting some kind of player return for Burnett. 

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The viral internet sensation with more core strength than anyone I personally know has inked a contract with the Oakland A's. Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes joins a trio of outfielders acquired via trades (Colin Cowgill, Seth Smith, and Josh Reddick), one added through free agency (Jonny Gomes) and one re-signed by the club (Coco Crisp). When factoring in that the club has converted shortstop to center fielder Grant Green playing in Triple-A, Michael Taylor flanking him in a corner outfield position at Sacramento, and top prospect Michael Choice in Double-A and coming off a monster Arizona Fall League performance, and I'm left scratching my head. Regardless, as a wise man once said, it is what it is.

With that in mind, let's look at what it is. Cespedes joins a suddenly crowded outfield. Some view him as capable of patrolling center field thanks to his above average speed. Others think he's better suited for a corner, where his plus arm would play. Crisp is the incumbent center fielder. How did he play in the field in 2011? Crisp had a negative 5.5 fielding score per FanGraphs in 2011, but I must caution that looking at one year's worth of data can be misleading. Going back to the previous two years, 2009 and 2010, his fielding scores were 4.8 and 7.3 respectively. I'm of the opinion he's still a valuable asset defensively in center field, and his bat doesn't play well in a corner value wise, so look for him to be penciled in as the starting center fielder (MLB.com suggest Crisp will move to a corner, so time will tell). That leaves Smith, Reddick, Gomes, and Cespedes vying for playing time in the corner outfield positions, and probably some at designated hitter, unless Chris Carter claims that job for himself. Smith has a gigantic platoon split with a .202/.272/.304 career line against southpaws versus a .290/.364/.518 career line against righies. Safe to say he'll be shielded from left-handed pitching if the team knows what's good for them. Conversely, Gomes annihilates left-handed pitching hitting .281/.375/.501 in 904 career plate appearances. Seems like an obvious platoon tandem to me. Reddick has fared well enough against same handed pitching (which is left-handed) in his limited major league time, and throughout his minor league career, that I'd expect him to play everyday. no comments

 
Did you hear the news? (hat was a joke, I'm sure you did.) The Tigers signed Prince Fielder to an un-goodnessly large contract that will pay him over $200 million (American) dollars over the next nine years. This contract will, in all likelihood, prove to be a gross overpayment, but I won’t be complaining as he and Cabrera combine to hit a billion home runs for the next several years.

Now that the initial shock and excitement has worn off, we’re all left with the same question: what do you do with two hefty first basemen? As we all know, there are two answers. Door number one leads to one of the two playing first base and the other acting as the designated hitter on any given day. Door number two leads to Cabrera moving back to his “natural” position at the hot corner (there can’t be anything “natural” about a 6-4, 250 lb man playing third base, can there?).

The first choice would be relatively simple to implement for this season. The addition of Prince effectively and completely makes up for the loss of Victor Martinez, so it’s really just a plug-and-play solution. The big problem arises when Victor returns by the start of the 2013 season. What do you do when you have three really good hitters that need to be in the lineup everyday, but you only have two lineup spots available? You could try to trade Victor, but you’d get literally nothing in return (unless you eat a large portion of the money) because he has little to no excess value in his contract. That’s a less than ideal solution. You could try to trade Cabrera, but then, what would have been the point of all of this? Door number one works for a year, but I think it would lead down a path that ends up in front of door number two.

What the Tigers really need to do is see if Cabrera can stick at third base. So the question becomes, how bad can we allow him to be in the field before we need to squash the experiment? To answer this question, we need to figure out what the differences in the lineups would be with Cabby at third and at DH.

(more after the jump)
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If Washington Nationals manager Davey Johnson gets his wish, baseball's top prospect, Bryce Harper, will be on the major league roster come April 5th in Chicago.  Johnson has said this before, but it was most recently reported by Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com.

It's hard to not think about the impact that Harper's bat in the Nationals lineup would have for the team.  Harper has a ridiculous arm and is getting better at tracking balls down in the outfield, and he's excelled offensively at every level he's seen so far in the minor league system, too.  Some in baseball have said Harper could be one of the best prospects in the history of baseball, drawing comparisons to Alex Rodriguez, Ken Griffey, Jr., and Chipper Jones. Let's just consider for a moment what the Nationals roster could look like on Opening Day if Harper makes the jump from Double-A to the Majors in Spring Training. no comments

It's clear that Washington Nationals GM Mike Rizzo puts a premium on quality pitching, and the Nats are becoming a team that's increasingly difficult to ignore because of it.  The Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Angels have incredible pitching rotations, but what about the entirety of their pitching staffs?  Can anyone compare to the Nats?

It hasn't taken long for the Nats pitching staff to shape itself into something pretty remarkable.  On Opening Day 2011, the Nationals starting rotation was Livan Hernandez (36), John Lannan(26), Jordan Zimmermann (25), Jason Marquis(32), and Tom Gorzelanny (29).  The average age of that rotation was 30 years old.  Livan won't be tendered a contract with the Nats this season, Marquis was traded, and Gorzelanny flopped as a starter.  On Opening Day 2012, the starting rotation will likely be some combination of Stephen Strasburg (23), Gio Gonzalez (26), Jordan Zimmerman (26), Chien-Ming Wang (32), and either John Lannan (27) or Ross Detwiler (26).  This rotation's average age would be just under 27 years old.  The youth movement is in full swing. no comments

According to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, a "surprising" number of baseball executives privately believe that when it's all said and done, the Los Angeles Dodgers may be major players for free-agent slugger Prince Fielder.

Could this be what Prince Fielder and agent Scott Boras are waiting for?

Joel Sherman@Joelsherman1

Stuff I heard and learned at BBWAA dinner: 1) surprising number of execs think #Dodgers will ultimately be in play for Prince Fielder (cont)

22 Jan 12

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We all know that the team will have a new ownership prior to next season, and it is widely believed that not only will that ownership want to win but they will also be willing to spend serious money to do it. As part of Frank McCourt'ssettlement with Major League Baseball, Fox Sports will have exclusive negotiating rights for a mega-television contract following the 2012 season, which could infuse the new Dodgers regime with massive amounts of spending cash right off the bat. Of course the timeline plays an issue here. The Dodgers must be sold by April 1, but as of the latest reports there is nothing immediate on the table. While a new ownership group likely wouldn't be in control in time to land Fielder themselves, it's more than reasonable to assume that if the bidding groups were interested in Fielder, the current regime wouldn't hesitate to go out and attemp to get him to sweeten the pot.

That being said, the Dodgers are already in a competitive hole that a new ownership group would unquestionably want to attempt to cut down immediately. The Los Angeles Angels made a major play this offseason to capture the hearts of the Los Angeles baseball market by acquiring both Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson. What better way to match the Angels' moves than with the acquisition of Prince Fielder and a new ownership group to infuse a stale fan base?

This could be bad news for the Nats who have, until now, seemed the most logical fit for Fielder. No other team has as big a hole (no pun intended) at first base, and no other team seems to be willing and able to spend the type of money to acquire the All-Star slugger. Yet here we are, inching closer and closer to February and still they have not been able to lock Fielder down. You would think that if both the club and the player were actually intent on making a deal, it would be done already.

That leads me to one of two conclusions. Either the Nationals aren't willing to truly play ball and give Fielder the type of contract he and his agent wants, or Fielder isn't earnestly interested in joining the Nationals, and he's just playing the market until a potential golden ticket to Los Angeles presents itself.

When you break it down, it would be hard to blame anyone for at least considering to join he Dodgers over the Nationals. Los Angeles is a sexy city, and you would be joining not only the man who should have won the NL MVP, Matt Kemp, but also the best starting pitcher in the league, Calyton Kershaw. Both teams look to rebuild through their incredibly talented youth...but the Dodgers have at least some of that talent locked up over the long term, and Los Angeles has a much longer history of competition than Washington.

As late as today several journalists have named the Nationals as the reigning favorites to sign Fielder. But each day that passes, I think it's less and less likely that it is going to happen.

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By now, we probably shouldn't be surprised when it comes to news about Francisco Rodriguez. The trade bringing him to Milwaukee was unexpected. Very few people expected him to accept the Brewers' offer of arbitration at the end of the season. And now, perhaps most shocking of all, K-Rod is avoiding arbitration by signing a one-year deal for $8 million. [thebrewersbar]

Considering many arbitration projections had him slotted for over $10 million, the $8 million salary actually comes off as a somewhat pleasant surprise. Sure, you could find better uses for $8 million than a set-up man, but considering some of the contracts signed this winter, perhaps it isn't so bad after all.

Ryan Madson, like Rodriguez, had his eyes set on a big-dollar deal to close. He wound up in Cincinnati on a one-year, $8.5 million deal that was lauded as a "steal." Yet the K-Rod deal is still being described by some (most notably Keith Law) as "awful."

A lot of this probably has to do with the closer label. Only $8.5 million and minimal commitment to a shutdown closer? That sure sounds like a sweet deal. The same amount for just a "set-up guy?" That's just absurd, right?  no comments

With Spring Training around the corner, and the 2012 starting as the winter season ends, the question is this? [oriolepost]

How does one market the Baltimore Orioles?

We know that the 20^th anniversary of Camden Yards is this year and the organization will be having several things going on with that. That being said, it’s a great marketing tool, but at the end of the day – I care about the product on the field and winning.

Camden Yards has been kept in immaculate condition, and it’s still a gold standard of ballparks everywhere. There have been more additions to it in terms of concessions, seating options and more attractions.

Well, that’s all wonderful and good; however, once again, the product on the field has not left much to be desired.

Back in the day, Camden Yards was filled and it seemed that you had to know someone to get a ticket. Now, it’s fairly easy to get one – well, maybe not Opening Day – and there are some night you can’t even give them away.

As of now, the Orioles are by all accounts supposed to finish last in American League East. They have players such as Matt Wieters, Nick Markakis, slugger Mark Reynolds, Adam Jones and J.J. Hardy on the squad; however, does anyone really care about this team in the dead of winter? Is there any excitement – aside from hardcore fans – for the season to be approaching?

Until now, have the Oriole signed anyone of great significance to a contract? no comments